NCAA Tournament Part III-B: Who are they?

So, I spent some time today, while live NCAA tournament games were taking place, to watch an archived Wisconsin game. That's how much I care. The game I chose was Wisconsin's recent loss to Ohio State in the Big 10 tournament. Now, here at Somebody to Leon we like to keep the analysis classy and at a high level. I must tell you, though, that my strongest impression of Wisconsin basketball was that they are ugly. No, I don't mean that they play a slow, grind it out style of basketball (which they do). I mean that their players are not attractive. I'm not prepared to claim that beauty pageant ability correlates strongly with basketball ability (though I haven't seen any studies showing that it doesn't), but if it does, FSU has this one in the bag.

Now, onto the serious part. The Badgers play a very patient style of offense, passing the ball around the perimeter, and working for a good shot. They don't appear to have an explosive scorer, but they do have plenty of large, relatively agile players who can all handle the ball, shoot, and pass.

Jon Leuer (number 30) is 6-10 sophomore who mostly plays inside, but can move well in the open court, and even knocked down a three or so in this game. He doesn't appear to have a dominating post-up game. If the 'Noles can handle Tyler Hansborough and Trevor Booker, they can handle Leuer, but it will be important not to forget about him. He's skilled enough to hurt a team when given space.

Marcus Landry (number 1) is a 6-7 senior, who is easily identified by his large sports glasses. I remember watching him in the tournament last year. He's a playmaker with pretty good post moves, and while what I saw in this game didn't impress me, I think that he's a player capable of giving the Badger offense a boost when they're having trouble running their system. He also makes nearly 40% of his shots from three.

The player who most scared me is 6-7 senior, Joe Krabbenhoft (number 45). He's big, and fast, with good moves and a smooth shot. He reminds me a lot of Nick Calathes off of the Gators, and he should present some real matchup problems. I would not be at all surprised if FSU gives DeMercy more than his usual playing time, in an attempt to slow Krabbenhoft down.

The other two starters for Wisconsin are the 6-0 junior, Trevor Hughes (number 3), and the 6-2 junior, Jason Bohannon (number 12). Both can shoot, but neither impressed me all that much. One of them will be rendered completely ineffectual by Toney Douglas.

As for the Badgers' defense, I thought that they looked susceptible to athleticism on the outside. Ohio state was able to penetrate relatively easily, leading to fouls and dishes for easy buckets. I would expect Toney Douglas, Derwin Kitchen, and Luke Loucks to have the same success. The Badgers did rebound the ball effectively, but it didn't seem to me like Ohio State was really pressuring them. Maybe it only appeared this way because their boxouts were so dominating, but maybe the Big 10 is just not a very aggressive league, and Wisconsin's gaudy defensive rebounding stats are a product of the conservative environment.

FSU absolutely can beat the Badgers. The Seminoles have better athletes, and they play against better athletes in the ACC. While Wisconsin may be a more consistent team, if FSU performs at the level they are capable of, the 'Noles will win.

NCAA Tournament Part III-A: What are they?

Continuing the series of posts in my NCAA tournament preview, here is a look at FSU's first round match up with Wisconsin through the numbers. As always, I will be using Ken Pomeroy's wonderful and free site. Personally, Wisconsin doesn't scare me as a team, but Bo Ryan is a great coach.

Wisconsin is solid but not spectacular in almost all categories. They are the nations 27th best offense and 60th best defense. The fact that their offense is better than their defense is often obscured by their slow pace of play. On offense, they are average in almost all categories, except for turnovers. They are the 5th best team in the nation at protecting the ball. As for the components of their offense, the Badgers are more efficient from the three point line and the foul line than they are from two, though they are not exceptional from anywhere. The strength of their offense lies almost entirely in not committing turnovers.

Wisconsin's defensive numbers mirror their offensive numbers. They are average nearly everywhere, except for in regards to defensive rebounds, where they are the 5th best team in the country. They are, however, below average in terms of creating turnovers. They are slightly above average at limiting three point percentage, but they do give up a fair number of points from the foul line.

The overall picture is one of a conservative and consistent team. They play at a slow pace and do not allow teams to get points in transition (giving up offensive rebounds in the process). They are not explosive on offense, but they don't make mistakes either. If FSU plays well, the Seminoles should be able to win, but if they stumble, Wisconsin will be right there, ready to capitalize.

NCAA Tournament Part II-B: Who are we?

In this second installment of our NCAA Tournament preview, I'm going to go through the Seminoles' players individually. Watching basketball is much more fun when you know what to watch for in each player. Here's the Seminole bench.

Ryan Reid (number 42) is a 6-8, 235 pound forward in his junior season. I believe Reid to be an exceptional athlete. The only problem is that he's not calibrated for basketball. Reid has decent speed and jumping ability, but exceptional strength. In order to get his shot versus more "bouncy" defenders, Reid has to clear them out with his superior strength. The result is that he's very prone to offensive fouls. He is a great worker on the defensive end, and an excellent post defender, highlighted by his masterful performance against Trevor Booker of Clemson. He may not put up great individual defensive rebounding numbers, but you can be sure that his man isn't going to be the one hurting the 'Noles on the glass. Opposing fans may think Ryan Reid a dirty player. I prefer to merely call him physical. Versus Duke in the ACC championship game, Reid surprised me by sticking with the smaller Duke players on the perimeter. He's a very important part of our big-man rotation.

Sophomore Jordan DeMercy (number 2) is a very intriguing player. He's perhaps the best athlete on the team, standing 6-7, yet able to guard opposing guards. He's the definition of a stopper, and if there is a flaw in his defense, it's simply that he's overconfident, trying to guard great players too closely. The problem is that he's an offensive black hole. He cannot (and does not) shoot. He can easily get into the lane with his amazing athleticism, but he has trouble finishing anything that's not a dunk. What's worse, he lacks confidence, so rather than take what should be an easy lay in, he attempts circus passes that often fly out of bounds. DeMercy would be a great player if he brought even replacement level offense to the table.

Devidas Dulkys (number 4) is a 6-5 freshman from Lithuania. He was billed as a sharpshooter, but when he arrived, that shooting touch failed to materialize, and he lost confidence. The coaching staff placed him under standing orders to take every single shot he saw, and while the result was a lowly 29% shooting percentage from three for the season, he's now hitting his stride. He's finally become the shooter he was advertised as, and his teammates definitely believe in him, looking for him in the corner for drive and dishes.

The biggest surprise with Dulkys, however, has been his athleticism. When he first came to the program, he looked lost on defense, but he quickly learned the system, and has now progressed to the point where coach Hamilton uses him in conjunction with Toney Douglas and Jordan DeMercy to guard the best opposing scoring threats. If he continues to improve, and adds more wrinkles to his offensive game, Dulkys could have NBA potential.

Luke Loucks (number 3) is a 6-5 freshman point guard. FSU fans seem to have a dislike for Loucks, which is something I really can't understand. Early in the season he struggled with turnovers (especially in the Northwestern game) and the game seemed to be moving too fast for him. He still has a bad game every now and again, but he's proved himself as a valuable player with great vision and a basketball IQ that's off the charts. He's the inverse of Derwin Kitchen in that he may struggle bringing the ball up the court against tough man to man pressure, but he reads the game very well and is able to avoid traps. On defense, Loucks is slightly slow of foot, having difficulty handling athletic types such as Wayne Ellington of UNC (then again, many players have had similar difficulty). His basketball IQ shows up on defense, too, as he has the best steal rate on the entire team. With the 'Noles deep bench, you never know who will play in any given game, but if you get a chance to watch Loucks, count yourself as lucky. His passing is sublime.

Freshman center/forward Xavior Gibson (number 1) is 6-11 230 pounder with incredible potential. When he gets in the game, he provides an instant offensive lift, with a sweet jumper and some nice explosive inside moves. The problem is that he doesn't get onto the floor very often. Believe it or not, at 230 pounds, he's a waif. He gets pushed around, and is a liability on defense and on the boards. When he bulks up, he and Solomon will be a killer inside duo. As it stands now, Gibson only plays when Solomon, Uche, and Reid are in foul trouble or need a breather. Lately though, he's given some quality minutes.

Senior guard Brian Hoff is not part of the regular rotation, but I think I should still mention him. Hoff joined the team as a walk-on as a freshman, and for his senior season he was awarded a scholarship. Someone on the outside like me cannot really say how important Hoff has been to the program, but what I can say is that he's not as limited a player as some might think. From what I've seen, Hoff is the 'Noles best shooter. He's also calm with the ball, and plays within himself. He doesn't commit turnovers. In a different program, or in a different year, Brian Hoff would contribute.

NCAA Tournament Part II-A: Who are we?

In this second installment of our NCAA Tournament preview, I'm going to go through the Seminoles' players individually. Watching basketball is much more fun when you know what to watch for in each player. First, the Seminole starters:

For the Seminoles, everything starts with number 23, Toney Douglas. Toney is a 6-2 senior guard, who was named to the all ACC 1st team, as well as the all ACC defensive team, and was the runner up for ACC player of the year. Toney lead the ACC in scoring at 21.3 points per game. As a scorer, he can do it all. He can penetrate and finish around the basket, he loves to pull up and take mid-range jumpers or floaters, and if his opponent plays off him, he has no problem simply stepping back and knocking down the three. He's also amazing at using his great quickness to force his opponent into blocking fouls, and he uses this ability both to score once FSU reaches the bonus, and to get opposing players into foul trouble. While the 'Noles as a whole are turnover prone, Toney is by far the most secure player with the ball. If "clutch" is a repeatable skill, Toney Douglas is clutch. The only thing I've noticed that he doesn't do well is find the roller on a pick and roll.

Perhaps even more impressive than his offense is Toney Douglas's defense. Toney has very quick hands, and is able to cleanly get steals even against opposing point guards as they bring the ball up the court. Once an opponent gets into their half-court offense, Toney stops going for the steal, and becomes a lockdown defender. In the regular season game versus UNC, Toney neutralized Ty Lawson, and later in the year versus Miami, he was able to stick to Jack McClinton so closely that McClinton only took 2 shots in the entire first half. Toney plays 90.7% of his team's minutes, the 25th highest mark of any player in the NCAA. His leadership with this young team has had a huge impact.

Uche Echefu (number 41) is the other senior on the team, playing the forward position at 6-9. For much of his career, Uche has been the Seminoles' main big man, having to fight against bigger, heavier, stronger centers. Now, in his senior year, the emergence of Solomon Alabi has taken some of the inside pressure off of Uche, but he still benefits from the toughness and grit he had to develop in those past years. He's the team's best defensive rebounder, and his defense has been described by the coaches as "clinical." Perhaps the highpoint of Uche's season was the regular season UNC game where he shut down Tyler Hansborough by keeping him from ever receiving the ball in the post. On the offensive end, Uche is well polished. He uses an assortment of power moves, finesse moves,and turnaround jumpers, and this year he's extended his shooting range to beyond the three point line. When he gets to the foul line, he's an 85% free-throw shooter. The 'Noles don't run very many isolations, but when they want to make an opposing big man play some defense (and maybe get into some foul trouble), they usually try and run Uche at him.

Red shirt freshman center, Solomon Alabi (number 32) has been a revelation. Last year, his season was ended by a stress fracture in his leg, which also prevented him from working out his lower body. Because of this, he lacks the necessary leg strength to really establish his position inside. Nevertheless, he's made himself a force. At 7-1, he's one of the nation's top shotblockers, right up there with UConn's Hashim Thabeet, and Mississippi State's Jarvis Varnando. He's also developed a beautiful finess game complete with baby hooks and a sweet 15 foot jump shot. He's a very good player now. When he has more time to build up his strength, he'll be lottery pick good.

Chris Singleton (number 31) was the most anticipated recruit of the incoming freshman class. At 6-9, 220 pounds, he's an amazing athlete. He can jump through the roof, is a beast on the offensive boards, and is a very good man to man defender. He has size, speed, and quick hands, which allows him to put up a very respectable steal rate. He does, however, tend to lose his man when the ball is shot, giving up offensive rebounds. He also sometimes gets sucked too far inside in help defense, giving up open threes. When he arrived, he drew immediate comparisons to Al Thorton. Unfortunately (though understandably) he's not quite there yet. He dribbles the ball too high, which leads to turnovers, and he's slightly prone to taking wild shots. He's not quite skillful enough yet to dominate as a driver and slasher, but he's still useful on offense because of his three point shooting. When he develops his offensive skills in future years, he'll be a force.

Derwin Kitchen (number 22) is a 6-4 sophomore guard in his first year at FSU. He became eligible with the season already in progress, so it took him some time to get up to speed. Now, he seems to have gained confidence and understanding in the system, and is turning the corner. He's a very good dribbler, and can break a press all by himself. On offense, he takes some of the ball handling responsibility off of Toney Douglas's shoulders. He can drive and finish at the basket, but he's not yet a great shooter from distance (maybe he can shoot, but he lacks confidence). Sometimes Kitchen dribbles himself into trouble, causing turnovers, but I think that his understanding improves with every game. Kitchen is at his best when he's pushing the pace after defensive stops, creating fast breaks.

NCAA Tournament Part I: What are we?

The NCAA tournament begins tomorrow, and for the first time in a decade, the Seminoles will be a part of it. Interestingly, this is the first year in the past decade that Somebody to Leon has been around to cover Florida State basketball, and while the causal connection may be tenuous, I think that I better keep the karma rolling. In this first two sections, I will describe where the FSU men's basketball team stands going into The Tournament. In the third section I will attempt to provide a scouting report for FSU's first round foe, Wisconsin.

Let me begin by discussing what Ken Pomeroy thinks the Seminoles are. By his stats, the 'Noles are the 12th best defensive team in the nation, but only the 94th best offensive team, barely above average. On offense, the 'Noles shoot an average percentage (slightly better from three-point range than from two), but do score effectively from the free-throw line. They collect offensive rebounds at a good but not great rate. The real problem (why so many analysts are picking FSU to be upset in the first round) is turnovers. The Seminoles are only the 291st best team in the nation at limiting turnovers.

On defense, the picture is much more comforting. Overall the 'Noles are the 12th best defense in the country. They are exceptional at blocking shots (6th), and limiting opponents' shooting percentage (17th). They are significantly better at limiting two-point shooting percentage (16th), than three-point shooting percentage (80th), but their three-point defense is still above average. They are affective at creating steals (40th) and turnovers in general (69th). In light of the fact that they play aggressive man-to-man defense, it is impressive that the Seminoles commit fouls at merely an average rate. The only thing that the 'Nole defense doesn't do well is rebound. They are the 274th best defensive rebounding team, and their penchant for giving away second chances is both frustrating, and difficult to explain, as they are the tallest team in the nation, by average height.

Based on these numbers, many stats experts believe that FSU is primed to be the victim of a first round upset. At the same time, I've heard several announcers claim that they think the Seminoles are capable of a deep tournament run. I tend to agree with the latter group. In the next segment, I will attempt to justify my optimism as I take a look at the 'Noles on a personnel level.