NCAA Tournament Part II-B: Who are we?

In this second installment of our NCAA Tournament preview, I'm going to go through the Seminoles' players individually. Watching basketball is much more fun when you know what to watch for in each player. Here's the Seminole bench.

Ryan Reid (number 42) is a 6-8, 235 pound forward in his junior season. I believe Reid to be an exceptional athlete. The only problem is that he's not calibrated for basketball. Reid has decent speed and jumping ability, but exceptional strength. In order to get his shot versus more "bouncy" defenders, Reid has to clear them out with his superior strength. The result is that he's very prone to offensive fouls. He is a great worker on the defensive end, and an excellent post defender, highlighted by his masterful performance against Trevor Booker of Clemson. He may not put up great individual defensive rebounding numbers, but you can be sure that his man isn't going to be the one hurting the 'Noles on the glass. Opposing fans may think Ryan Reid a dirty player. I prefer to merely call him physical. Versus Duke in the ACC championship game, Reid surprised me by sticking with the smaller Duke players on the perimeter. He's a very important part of our big-man rotation.

Sophomore Jordan DeMercy (number 2) is a very intriguing player. He's perhaps the best athlete on the team, standing 6-7, yet able to guard opposing guards. He's the definition of a stopper, and if there is a flaw in his defense, it's simply that he's overconfident, trying to guard great players too closely. The problem is that he's an offensive black hole. He cannot (and does not) shoot. He can easily get into the lane with his amazing athleticism, but he has trouble finishing anything that's not a dunk. What's worse, he lacks confidence, so rather than take what should be an easy lay in, he attempts circus passes that often fly out of bounds. DeMercy would be a great player if he brought even replacement level offense to the table.

Devidas Dulkys (number 4) is a 6-5 freshman from Lithuania. He was billed as a sharpshooter, but when he arrived, that shooting touch failed to materialize, and he lost confidence. The coaching staff placed him under standing orders to take every single shot he saw, and while the result was a lowly 29% shooting percentage from three for the season, he's now hitting his stride. He's finally become the shooter he was advertised as, and his teammates definitely believe in him, looking for him in the corner for drive and dishes.

The biggest surprise with Dulkys, however, has been his athleticism. When he first came to the program, he looked lost on defense, but he quickly learned the system, and has now progressed to the point where coach Hamilton uses him in conjunction with Toney Douglas and Jordan DeMercy to guard the best opposing scoring threats. If he continues to improve, and adds more wrinkles to his offensive game, Dulkys could have NBA potential.

Luke Loucks (number 3) is a 6-5 freshman point guard. FSU fans seem to have a dislike for Loucks, which is something I really can't understand. Early in the season he struggled with turnovers (especially in the Northwestern game) and the game seemed to be moving too fast for him. He still has a bad game every now and again, but he's proved himself as a valuable player with great vision and a basketball IQ that's off the charts. He's the inverse of Derwin Kitchen in that he may struggle bringing the ball up the court against tough man to man pressure, but he reads the game very well and is able to avoid traps. On defense, Loucks is slightly slow of foot, having difficulty handling athletic types such as Wayne Ellington of UNC (then again, many players have had similar difficulty). His basketball IQ shows up on defense, too, as he has the best steal rate on the entire team. With the 'Noles deep bench, you never know who will play in any given game, but if you get a chance to watch Loucks, count yourself as lucky. His passing is sublime.

Freshman center/forward Xavior Gibson (number 1) is 6-11 230 pounder with incredible potential. When he gets in the game, he provides an instant offensive lift, with a sweet jumper and some nice explosive inside moves. The problem is that he doesn't get onto the floor very often. Believe it or not, at 230 pounds, he's a waif. He gets pushed around, and is a liability on defense and on the boards. When he bulks up, he and Solomon will be a killer inside duo. As it stands now, Gibson only plays when Solomon, Uche, and Reid are in foul trouble or need a breather. Lately though, he's given some quality minutes.

Senior guard Brian Hoff is not part of the regular rotation, but I think I should still mention him. Hoff joined the team as a walk-on as a freshman, and for his senior season he was awarded a scholarship. Someone on the outside like me cannot really say how important Hoff has been to the program, but what I can say is that he's not as limited a player as some might think. From what I've seen, Hoff is the 'Noles best shooter. He's also calm with the ball, and plays within himself. He doesn't commit turnovers. In a different program, or in a different year, Brian Hoff would contribute.

Defensive Rebounds: Uche Echefu and the Rest, Part II

Before I get to the conclusion of the defensive rebounding series, I have to admit that I had great difficulty watching the battle in the paint for the first half. I was completely transfixed by the show Toney Douglas put up guarding Jack McClinton, Miami's star scorer. In FSU's first meeting with Miami, Leonard Hamilton elected to guard the 6-1 McClinton with the 6-7 Jordan Demercy. This strategy made perfect sense, as it should be difficult for even the best of shooters to get off clean shots against athletic freaks half a foot taller than them. McClinton, however, was able to create just enough space to bomb away from well beyond the NBA three point line. It was a learning experience for DeMercy, and a reminder that sometimes elite scorers appear completely unstoppable.

In the second meeting, Hamilton adopted a different strategy. Sometimes the Noles trapped McClinton as he was bringing the ball up the court, just to get it out of his hands. Other times, Toney simply pressured McClinton man to man till he gave the ball up. After the ball was out of McClinton's hands, Toney stuck to him like a Venus fly trap sticks to a bug it has already digested. By my count, McClinton took only one shot in the first half while Toney was guarding him, and that was a brick. In the second half, Devidas Dulkys and Demercy each spent time on McClinton to give Toney a rest, with acceptable results, and Toney was able to martial enough energy for his usual late game excellence, but for my money, the whole first half was "Toney Douglas Time."

Now for the rebounding. When I payed more attention in the second half, I found that FSU's help line is not as aggressive as Clemson's. We seem to place it right about at the center of the paint (Clemson's was on the strong side of the paint). I don't think that aspect of our scheme is as instrumental in our rebounding woes as it is for Clemson. As for Singleton, he does watch the ball too much and lose his man occasionally. Alabi does lack some strength, most noticeable in the fact that Hamilton often tries to protect him by placing Uche or Reid on the opponent's most bullish player. Reid, though, is a complete mystery. Everything that I previously noted Trevor Booker doing well and Raymond Sykes doing poorly, Ryan Reid excels at. Reid never loses his man, he never lets him take up position near the basket, and he always puts a strong body on him when the shot goes up. Reid may not be pulling down a ton of defensive rebounds, but he most definitely is not letting his man get to them either. Perhaps he is too disciplined and doesn't go after the ball soon enough on defense. Perhaps his style of play helps the team without showing up in his personal stat line. For a great read about +/- statistics and their use in analyzing the true contribution of a player, read this Michael Lewis article in the New York Times Magazine. As far as I know, no one keeps +/- stats for college basketball, and I don't feel able to hazard a qualitative guess at what Reid's true rebounding contribution is.

So here are my concluding facts:
1) The Seminoles are good at offensive rebounding but bad at defensive rebounding.
2) The Seminoles are the tallest team in the nation.
3) Uche Echefu's individual stats say that he is a good defensive rebounder. My eyes agree.
4) Solomon Alabi's individual stats say that he is a decent defensive rebounder, but a comparison to other centers of his considerable talent (and to Uche last year) reveals that he should be better than he is. My eyes and Leonard Hamilton's mouth say that he lacks lower body strength due to his recent stress fracture, and that he will improve.
5) Chris Singleton's individual stats say that he is an underperforming defensive rebounder. My eyes agree, because he often fails to get a dominating boxout on his assigned man.
6) Ryan Reid's individual stats say that he is an underperforming defensive rebounder. My eyes disagree, and say that he rarely misses his assignment.

Extras:
7) Xavior Gibson has a long way to go before he isn't a defensive liability in ACC play.
8) Jordan Demercy's stats say that he is a valuable rebounder in the context that he usually plays defense against a perimeter player.