NCAA Tournament Part I: What are we?

The NCAA tournament begins tomorrow, and for the first time in a decade, the Seminoles will be a part of it. Interestingly, this is the first year in the past decade that Somebody to Leon has been around to cover Florida State basketball, and while the causal connection may be tenuous, I think that I better keep the karma rolling. In this first two sections, I will describe where the FSU men's basketball team stands going into The Tournament. In the third section I will attempt to provide a scouting report for FSU's first round foe, Wisconsin.

Let me begin by discussing what Ken Pomeroy thinks the Seminoles are. By his stats, the 'Noles are the 12th best defensive team in the nation, but only the 94th best offensive team, barely above average. On offense, the 'Noles shoot an average percentage (slightly better from three-point range than from two), but do score effectively from the free-throw line. They collect offensive rebounds at a good but not great rate. The real problem (why so many analysts are picking FSU to be upset in the first round) is turnovers. The Seminoles are only the 291st best team in the nation at limiting turnovers.

On defense, the picture is much more comforting. Overall the 'Noles are the 12th best defense in the country. They are exceptional at blocking shots (6th), and limiting opponents' shooting percentage (17th). They are significantly better at limiting two-point shooting percentage (16th), than three-point shooting percentage (80th), but their three-point defense is still above average. They are affective at creating steals (40th) and turnovers in general (69th). In light of the fact that they play aggressive man-to-man defense, it is impressive that the Seminoles commit fouls at merely an average rate. The only thing that the 'Nole defense doesn't do well is rebound. They are the 274th best defensive rebounding team, and their penchant for giving away second chances is both frustrating, and difficult to explain, as they are the tallest team in the nation, by average height.

Based on these numbers, many stats experts believe that FSU is primed to be the victim of a first round upset. At the same time, I've heard several announcers claim that they think the Seminoles are capable of a deep tournament run. I tend to agree with the latter group. In the next segment, I will attempt to justify my optimism as I take a look at the 'Noles on a personnel level.