NCAA Tournament Part III-B: Who are they?

So, I spent some time today, while live NCAA tournament games were taking place, to watch an archived Wisconsin game. That's how much I care. The game I chose was Wisconsin's recent loss to Ohio State in the Big 10 tournament. Now, here at Somebody to Leon we like to keep the analysis classy and at a high level. I must tell you, though, that my strongest impression of Wisconsin basketball was that they are ugly. No, I don't mean that they play a slow, grind it out style of basketball (which they do). I mean that their players are not attractive. I'm not prepared to claim that beauty pageant ability correlates strongly with basketball ability (though I haven't seen any studies showing that it doesn't), but if it does, FSU has this one in the bag.

Now, onto the serious part. The Badgers play a very patient style of offense, passing the ball around the perimeter, and working for a good shot. They don't appear to have an explosive scorer, but they do have plenty of large, relatively agile players who can all handle the ball, shoot, and pass.

Jon Leuer (number 30) is 6-10 sophomore who mostly plays inside, but can move well in the open court, and even knocked down a three or so in this game. He doesn't appear to have a dominating post-up game. If the 'Noles can handle Tyler Hansborough and Trevor Booker, they can handle Leuer, but it will be important not to forget about him. He's skilled enough to hurt a team when given space.

Marcus Landry (number 1) is a 6-7 senior, who is easily identified by his large sports glasses. I remember watching him in the tournament last year. He's a playmaker with pretty good post moves, and while what I saw in this game didn't impress me, I think that he's a player capable of giving the Badger offense a boost when they're having trouble running their system. He also makes nearly 40% of his shots from three.

The player who most scared me is 6-7 senior, Joe Krabbenhoft (number 45). He's big, and fast, with good moves and a smooth shot. He reminds me a lot of Nick Calathes off of the Gators, and he should present some real matchup problems. I would not be at all surprised if FSU gives DeMercy more than his usual playing time, in an attempt to slow Krabbenhoft down.

The other two starters for Wisconsin are the 6-0 junior, Trevor Hughes (number 3), and the 6-2 junior, Jason Bohannon (number 12). Both can shoot, but neither impressed me all that much. One of them will be rendered completely ineffectual by Toney Douglas.

As for the Badgers' defense, I thought that they looked susceptible to athleticism on the outside. Ohio state was able to penetrate relatively easily, leading to fouls and dishes for easy buckets. I would expect Toney Douglas, Derwin Kitchen, and Luke Loucks to have the same success. The Badgers did rebound the ball effectively, but it didn't seem to me like Ohio State was really pressuring them. Maybe it only appeared this way because their boxouts were so dominating, but maybe the Big 10 is just not a very aggressive league, and Wisconsin's gaudy defensive rebounding stats are a product of the conservative environment.

FSU absolutely can beat the Badgers. The Seminoles have better athletes, and they play against better athletes in the ACC. While Wisconsin may be a more consistent team, if FSU performs at the level they are capable of, the 'Noles will win.

NCAA Tournament Part III-A: What are they?

Continuing the series of posts in my NCAA tournament preview, here is a look at FSU's first round match up with Wisconsin through the numbers. As always, I will be using Ken Pomeroy's wonderful and free site. Personally, Wisconsin doesn't scare me as a team, but Bo Ryan is a great coach.

Wisconsin is solid but not spectacular in almost all categories. They are the nations 27th best offense and 60th best defense. The fact that their offense is better than their defense is often obscured by their slow pace of play. On offense, they are average in almost all categories, except for turnovers. They are the 5th best team in the nation at protecting the ball. As for the components of their offense, the Badgers are more efficient from the three point line and the foul line than they are from two, though they are not exceptional from anywhere. The strength of their offense lies almost entirely in not committing turnovers.

Wisconsin's defensive numbers mirror their offensive numbers. They are average nearly everywhere, except for in regards to defensive rebounds, where they are the 5th best team in the country. They are, however, below average in terms of creating turnovers. They are slightly above average at limiting three point percentage, but they do give up a fair number of points from the foul line.

The overall picture is one of a conservative and consistent team. They play at a slow pace and do not allow teams to get points in transition (giving up offensive rebounds in the process). They are not explosive on offense, but they don't make mistakes either. If FSU plays well, the Seminoles should be able to win, but if they stumble, Wisconsin will be right there, ready to capitalize.