NCAA Tournament Part II-A: Who are we?

In this second installment of our NCAA Tournament preview, I'm going to go through the Seminoles' players individually. Watching basketball is much more fun when you know what to watch for in each player. First, the Seminole starters:

For the Seminoles, everything starts with number 23, Toney Douglas. Toney is a 6-2 senior guard, who was named to the all ACC 1st team, as well as the all ACC defensive team, and was the runner up for ACC player of the year. Toney lead the ACC in scoring at 21.3 points per game. As a scorer, he can do it all. He can penetrate and finish around the basket, he loves to pull up and take mid-range jumpers or floaters, and if his opponent plays off him, he has no problem simply stepping back and knocking down the three. He's also amazing at using his great quickness to force his opponent into blocking fouls, and he uses this ability both to score once FSU reaches the bonus, and to get opposing players into foul trouble. While the 'Noles as a whole are turnover prone, Toney is by far the most secure player with the ball. If "clutch" is a repeatable skill, Toney Douglas is clutch. The only thing I've noticed that he doesn't do well is find the roller on a pick and roll.

Perhaps even more impressive than his offense is Toney Douglas's defense. Toney has very quick hands, and is able to cleanly get steals even against opposing point guards as they bring the ball up the court. Once an opponent gets into their half-court offense, Toney stops going for the steal, and becomes a lockdown defender. In the regular season game versus UNC, Toney neutralized Ty Lawson, and later in the year versus Miami, he was able to stick to Jack McClinton so closely that McClinton only took 2 shots in the entire first half. Toney plays 90.7% of his team's minutes, the 25th highest mark of any player in the NCAA. His leadership with this young team has had a huge impact.

Uche Echefu (number 41) is the other senior on the team, playing the forward position at 6-9. For much of his career, Uche has been the Seminoles' main big man, having to fight against bigger, heavier, stronger centers. Now, in his senior year, the emergence of Solomon Alabi has taken some of the inside pressure off of Uche, but he still benefits from the toughness and grit he had to develop in those past years. He's the team's best defensive rebounder, and his defense has been described by the coaches as "clinical." Perhaps the highpoint of Uche's season was the regular season UNC game where he shut down Tyler Hansborough by keeping him from ever receiving the ball in the post. On the offensive end, Uche is well polished. He uses an assortment of power moves, finesse moves,and turnaround jumpers, and this year he's extended his shooting range to beyond the three point line. When he gets to the foul line, he's an 85% free-throw shooter. The 'Noles don't run very many isolations, but when they want to make an opposing big man play some defense (and maybe get into some foul trouble), they usually try and run Uche at him.

Red shirt freshman center, Solomon Alabi (number 32) has been a revelation. Last year, his season was ended by a stress fracture in his leg, which also prevented him from working out his lower body. Because of this, he lacks the necessary leg strength to really establish his position inside. Nevertheless, he's made himself a force. At 7-1, he's one of the nation's top shotblockers, right up there with UConn's Hashim Thabeet, and Mississippi State's Jarvis Varnando. He's also developed a beautiful finess game complete with baby hooks and a sweet 15 foot jump shot. He's a very good player now. When he has more time to build up his strength, he'll be lottery pick good.

Chris Singleton (number 31) was the most anticipated recruit of the incoming freshman class. At 6-9, 220 pounds, he's an amazing athlete. He can jump through the roof, is a beast on the offensive boards, and is a very good man to man defender. He has size, speed, and quick hands, which allows him to put up a very respectable steal rate. He does, however, tend to lose his man when the ball is shot, giving up offensive rebounds. He also sometimes gets sucked too far inside in help defense, giving up open threes. When he arrived, he drew immediate comparisons to Al Thorton. Unfortunately (though understandably) he's not quite there yet. He dribbles the ball too high, which leads to turnovers, and he's slightly prone to taking wild shots. He's not quite skillful enough yet to dominate as a driver and slasher, but he's still useful on offense because of his three point shooting. When he develops his offensive skills in future years, he'll be a force.

Derwin Kitchen (number 22) is a 6-4 sophomore guard in his first year at FSU. He became eligible with the season already in progress, so it took him some time to get up to speed. Now, he seems to have gained confidence and understanding in the system, and is turning the corner. He's a very good dribbler, and can break a press all by himself. On offense, he takes some of the ball handling responsibility off of Toney Douglas's shoulders. He can drive and finish at the basket, but he's not yet a great shooter from distance (maybe he can shoot, but he lacks confidence). Sometimes Kitchen dribbles himself into trouble, causing turnovers, but I think that his understanding improves with every game. Kitchen is at his best when he's pushing the pace after defensive stops, creating fast breaks.

Defensive Rebounds: Uche Echefu and the Rest, Part II

Before I get to the conclusion of the defensive rebounding series, I have to admit that I had great difficulty watching the battle in the paint for the first half. I was completely transfixed by the show Toney Douglas put up guarding Jack McClinton, Miami's star scorer. In FSU's first meeting with Miami, Leonard Hamilton elected to guard the 6-1 McClinton with the 6-7 Jordan Demercy. This strategy made perfect sense, as it should be difficult for even the best of shooters to get off clean shots against athletic freaks half a foot taller than them. McClinton, however, was able to create just enough space to bomb away from well beyond the NBA three point line. It was a learning experience for DeMercy, and a reminder that sometimes elite scorers appear completely unstoppable.

In the second meeting, Hamilton adopted a different strategy. Sometimes the Noles trapped McClinton as he was bringing the ball up the court, just to get it out of his hands. Other times, Toney simply pressured McClinton man to man till he gave the ball up. After the ball was out of McClinton's hands, Toney stuck to him like a Venus fly trap sticks to a bug it has already digested. By my count, McClinton took only one shot in the first half while Toney was guarding him, and that was a brick. In the second half, Devidas Dulkys and Demercy each spent time on McClinton to give Toney a rest, with acceptable results, and Toney was able to martial enough energy for his usual late game excellence, but for my money, the whole first half was "Toney Douglas Time."

Now for the rebounding. When I payed more attention in the second half, I found that FSU's help line is not as aggressive as Clemson's. We seem to place it right about at the center of the paint (Clemson's was on the strong side of the paint). I don't think that aspect of our scheme is as instrumental in our rebounding woes as it is for Clemson. As for Singleton, he does watch the ball too much and lose his man occasionally. Alabi does lack some strength, most noticeable in the fact that Hamilton often tries to protect him by placing Uche or Reid on the opponent's most bullish player. Reid, though, is a complete mystery. Everything that I previously noted Trevor Booker doing well and Raymond Sykes doing poorly, Ryan Reid excels at. Reid never loses his man, he never lets him take up position near the basket, and he always puts a strong body on him when the shot goes up. Reid may not be pulling down a ton of defensive rebounds, but he most definitely is not letting his man get to them either. Perhaps he is too disciplined and doesn't go after the ball soon enough on defense. Perhaps his style of play helps the team without showing up in his personal stat line. For a great read about +/- statistics and their use in analyzing the true contribution of a player, read this Michael Lewis article in the New York Times Magazine. As far as I know, no one keeps +/- stats for college basketball, and I don't feel able to hazard a qualitative guess at what Reid's true rebounding contribution is.

So here are my concluding facts:
1) The Seminoles are good at offensive rebounding but bad at defensive rebounding.
2) The Seminoles are the tallest team in the nation.
3) Uche Echefu's individual stats say that he is a good defensive rebounder. My eyes agree.
4) Solomon Alabi's individual stats say that he is a decent defensive rebounder, but a comparison to other centers of his considerable talent (and to Uche last year) reveals that he should be better than he is. My eyes and Leonard Hamilton's mouth say that he lacks lower body strength due to his recent stress fracture, and that he will improve.
5) Chris Singleton's individual stats say that he is an underperforming defensive rebounder. My eyes agree, because he often fails to get a dominating boxout on his assigned man.
6) Ryan Reid's individual stats say that he is an underperforming defensive rebounder. My eyes disagree, and say that he rarely misses his assignment.

Extras:
7) Xavior Gibson has a long way to go before he isn't a defensive liability in ACC play.
8) Jordan Demercy's stats say that he is a valuable rebounder in the context that he usually plays defense against a perimeter player.

Defensive Rebounds: Uche Echefu and the Rest, Part I-A

I became far too upset watching the Wake Forest game to actually analyze much of anything, and I don't think that I will be able to bring myself to go back and watch it again. Wake is really good at running the break off missed baskets, maybe better than UNC. Aminu is exceptional. We had very little answer for his offensive skill (though I thought that we could have been successful isolating Uche on him to try and get him into foul trouble). Toney handled Teague well enough, but the rest of their team was able to hurt us, even without being able to shoot the three. The most frustrating part was the refs. I won't say that they weren't consistent (though they did miss a few obvious calls that went against us). However, the game was called so tickey-tack that a team that plays aggressive man defense like we do really had very little chance. We couldn't stop their transition game, the refs kept us from being effective defending in the half court, and we never were able to build any energy offensively. Once Solomon was ejected, we were done. This game reminded me what a razors edge FSU walks between being able to beat anyone, and not even being competitive. A couple momentum swings against us can tip the balance way too far.

Anyway, back to defensive rebounding. The one play I did notice occurred in the first half when Solomon had perfect inside position on his man, but was unable to keep him sealed long enough, and his man managed to slide around him for the offensive rebound. Leonard Hamilton has often stated in his interviews that the stress fracture Solomon had last year kept him from working out his lower body at all, and that he's still suffering from a lack of strength. Now my original plan to determine why we have trouble with defensive rebounding was to compare Uche with Reid and Singleton, because the three of them spend most of their time at the forward position, while Solomon, who is our best overall rebounder, sticks more to the middle, as a true center. However, recall that Uche grabbed defensive rebounds last year (when he was our primary center) at a higher rate than Solomon does this year, and while our team last year had far less height overall, they ranked significantly better on the defensive boards. What I'm beginning to wonder is if our problem has more to do with Solomon's emergence pushing Uche out of the paint than it does with the rebounding skills of our forwards. When we next play a game that I can watch with a cool head, I will both compare Uche to Reid and Singleton, and also compare our rebounding prowess as a team with Solomon in the game to when he takes a seat.

Deffensive Rebounds: Uche Echefu and the Rest, Part I

This year, the FSU men's basketball team has emerged as a true tournament contender, and as of right now they are nationally ranked for the first time in over a decade. Their success has been a product of great offensive play from senior guard Toney Douglas and outstanding all-around team defense, highlighted by the shot blocking powers of redshirt freshman center, Solomon Alabi. The two main weaknesses this season have been turnovers and defensive rebounding. Recently, with the maturation of Alabi, Luke Louks, and Derwin Kitchen, I think that the Noles may have gotten over their turnover bugaboo. However, defensive rebounds continue to be a problem, which is both worrisome and puzzling, being that they are the tallest team in the nation, and are pretty good at corralling offensive rebounds.

What's wrong with us, and how can we improve? To try to answer this question, I will turn to the excellent pace-independent statistics provided by Ken Pomeroy. Caveat: When looking at statistics in any evaluation of player skill, it is important to remember that context matters. Team strategy and the abilities of the other four players on the floor impact individual statistics. For those who are interested, here is an interesting discussion of scheme and its affects on rebounding, at Basketball Prospectus.

First off, FSU grabs 36.7% of all offensive rebounds, good for 55th in the NCAA, but they allow opposing teams to reach 36.1% of rebounds on the defensive side of the court. This makes them the 284th best defensive rebounding team in the nation. Now, it's generally thought that offensive rebounding has more to do with athleticism and pursuit, whereas defensive rebounding depends on discipline and technique. (Of course, both offensive and defensive rebounding depend on scheme as well).

Looking at the individual rebounding statistics, it's instantly apparent that Alabi is FSU's best rebounder in an absolute sense, ranking 74th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 377th in defensive rebounding percentage. This makes intuitive sense, as Alabi is a 7-1 beast, who always plays in the paint when he's on the court. Note however, that he is a relatively better offensive rebounder than defensive one. The picture becomes more interesting, however, when we look at FSU's other frontcourt players. Chris Singleton and Ryan Reid rate 331st and 353th at offensive rebounding, but are not even within the national top 500 on the defensive glass. I am excluding Xavior Gibson from this analysis, as he plays significantly fewer minutes than the others.

The picture changes slightly when we look at senior Uche Echefu. This year, Uche has been the nations 360th best offensive rebounder and 488th best defensive rebounder. There is still a disparity between the two ratings, but it's the smallest disparity we've seen yet for an FSU player. Checking back one year to 2008, Uche was the nation's 419th best offensive rebounder, but 127th best defensive rebounder (actually, Uche's 2008 defensive rebounding rate was better than Alabi's rate this year). In fact, 2009 is the first time in Uche's career that he has rebounded better on the offensive glass than on the defensive. For comparison, Reid has ranked highly as an offensive rebounder in the past two seasons, but been out of the top 500 on the defensive end.

What does this all mean? I take it as strong evidence that Uche Echefu actually does something different on the defensive boards than all of the other FSU frontcourt players. The overall rebounding trend can be attributed to the scheme, but Uche outperforms his teammates who are used somewhat interchangeably within the same scheme. By only looking at the numbers, it is impossible to tell if he establishes position earlier, fights to hold his boxout longer, doesn't extend his defense as far on the perimeter, tries to block less shots, or any combination of these factors plus countless ones that I haven't thought of. For the next basketball game, I will devote all of my attention to the FSU frontcourt, to try to establish what is it exactly that Uche does that I sincerely hope he can pass on to his young teammates. Stay tuned for Part II.