NCAA Tournament Part II-A: Who are we?

In this second installment of our NCAA Tournament preview, I'm going to go through the Seminoles' players individually. Watching basketball is much more fun when you know what to watch for in each player. First, the Seminole starters:

For the Seminoles, everything starts with number 23, Toney Douglas. Toney is a 6-2 senior guard, who was named to the all ACC 1st team, as well as the all ACC defensive team, and was the runner up for ACC player of the year. Toney lead the ACC in scoring at 21.3 points per game. As a scorer, he can do it all. He can penetrate and finish around the basket, he loves to pull up and take mid-range jumpers or floaters, and if his opponent plays off him, he has no problem simply stepping back and knocking down the three. He's also amazing at using his great quickness to force his opponent into blocking fouls, and he uses this ability both to score once FSU reaches the bonus, and to get opposing players into foul trouble. While the 'Noles as a whole are turnover prone, Toney is by far the most secure player with the ball. If "clutch" is a repeatable skill, Toney Douglas is clutch. The only thing I've noticed that he doesn't do well is find the roller on a pick and roll.

Perhaps even more impressive than his offense is Toney Douglas's defense. Toney has very quick hands, and is able to cleanly get steals even against opposing point guards as they bring the ball up the court. Once an opponent gets into their half-court offense, Toney stops going for the steal, and becomes a lockdown defender. In the regular season game versus UNC, Toney neutralized Ty Lawson, and later in the year versus Miami, he was able to stick to Jack McClinton so closely that McClinton only took 2 shots in the entire first half. Toney plays 90.7% of his team's minutes, the 25th highest mark of any player in the NCAA. His leadership with this young team has had a huge impact.

Uche Echefu (number 41) is the other senior on the team, playing the forward position at 6-9. For much of his career, Uche has been the Seminoles' main big man, having to fight against bigger, heavier, stronger centers. Now, in his senior year, the emergence of Solomon Alabi has taken some of the inside pressure off of Uche, but he still benefits from the toughness and grit he had to develop in those past years. He's the team's best defensive rebounder, and his defense has been described by the coaches as "clinical." Perhaps the highpoint of Uche's season was the regular season UNC game where he shut down Tyler Hansborough by keeping him from ever receiving the ball in the post. On the offensive end, Uche is well polished. He uses an assortment of power moves, finesse moves,and turnaround jumpers, and this year he's extended his shooting range to beyond the three point line. When he gets to the foul line, he's an 85% free-throw shooter. The 'Noles don't run very many isolations, but when they want to make an opposing big man play some defense (and maybe get into some foul trouble), they usually try and run Uche at him.

Red shirt freshman center, Solomon Alabi (number 32) has been a revelation. Last year, his season was ended by a stress fracture in his leg, which also prevented him from working out his lower body. Because of this, he lacks the necessary leg strength to really establish his position inside. Nevertheless, he's made himself a force. At 7-1, he's one of the nation's top shotblockers, right up there with UConn's Hashim Thabeet, and Mississippi State's Jarvis Varnando. He's also developed a beautiful finess game complete with baby hooks and a sweet 15 foot jump shot. He's a very good player now. When he has more time to build up his strength, he'll be lottery pick good.

Chris Singleton (number 31) was the most anticipated recruit of the incoming freshman class. At 6-9, 220 pounds, he's an amazing athlete. He can jump through the roof, is a beast on the offensive boards, and is a very good man to man defender. He has size, speed, and quick hands, which allows him to put up a very respectable steal rate. He does, however, tend to lose his man when the ball is shot, giving up offensive rebounds. He also sometimes gets sucked too far inside in help defense, giving up open threes. When he arrived, he drew immediate comparisons to Al Thorton. Unfortunately (though understandably) he's not quite there yet. He dribbles the ball too high, which leads to turnovers, and he's slightly prone to taking wild shots. He's not quite skillful enough yet to dominate as a driver and slasher, but he's still useful on offense because of his three point shooting. When he develops his offensive skills in future years, he'll be a force.

Derwin Kitchen (number 22) is a 6-4 sophomore guard in his first year at FSU. He became eligible with the season already in progress, so it took him some time to get up to speed. Now, he seems to have gained confidence and understanding in the system, and is turning the corner. He's a very good dribbler, and can break a press all by himself. On offense, he takes some of the ball handling responsibility off of Toney Douglas's shoulders. He can drive and finish at the basket, but he's not yet a great shooter from distance (maybe he can shoot, but he lacks confidence). Sometimes Kitchen dribbles himself into trouble, causing turnovers, but I think that his understanding improves with every game. Kitchen is at his best when he's pushing the pace after defensive stops, creating fast breaks.

NCAA Tournament Part I: What are we?

The NCAA tournament begins tomorrow, and for the first time in a decade, the Seminoles will be a part of it. Interestingly, this is the first year in the past decade that Somebody to Leon has been around to cover Florida State basketball, and while the causal connection may be tenuous, I think that I better keep the karma rolling. In this first two sections, I will describe where the FSU men's basketball team stands going into The Tournament. In the third section I will attempt to provide a scouting report for FSU's first round foe, Wisconsin.

Let me begin by discussing what Ken Pomeroy thinks the Seminoles are. By his stats, the 'Noles are the 12th best defensive team in the nation, but only the 94th best offensive team, barely above average. On offense, the 'Noles shoot an average percentage (slightly better from three-point range than from two), but do score effectively from the free-throw line. They collect offensive rebounds at a good but not great rate. The real problem (why so many analysts are picking FSU to be upset in the first round) is turnovers. The Seminoles are only the 291st best team in the nation at limiting turnovers.

On defense, the picture is much more comforting. Overall the 'Noles are the 12th best defense in the country. They are exceptional at blocking shots (6th), and limiting opponents' shooting percentage (17th). They are significantly better at limiting two-point shooting percentage (16th), than three-point shooting percentage (80th), but their three-point defense is still above average. They are affective at creating steals (40th) and turnovers in general (69th). In light of the fact that they play aggressive man-to-man defense, it is impressive that the Seminoles commit fouls at merely an average rate. The only thing that the 'Nole defense doesn't do well is rebound. They are the 274th best defensive rebounding team, and their penchant for giving away second chances is both frustrating, and difficult to explain, as they are the tallest team in the nation, by average height.

Based on these numbers, many stats experts believe that FSU is primed to be the victim of a first round upset. At the same time, I've heard several announcers claim that they think the Seminoles are capable of a deep tournament run. I tend to agree with the latter group. In the next segment, I will attempt to justify my optimism as I take a look at the 'Noles on a personnel level.

Home Runs and PEDs

Firstly, Whooooooooooo!

The Noles upset win against UNC in today's ACC tournament is something to celebrate, especially in the wake of the NCAA ruling that forced FSU to vacate wins in the wake of the academic cheating scandal. Being in the finals with Duke should be exciting- and not just because of my visceral dislike for the Blue Devils. Although the Seminoles were swept by Duke in the regular season, the games were both relatively close (the second one especially) and in them our team showed the ability to stay in the game with tremendous defense.

Secondly, although this blog primarily covers FSU sports, we will occasionally post things that relate to the sports world as a whole. With that in mind, here's an interesting article about Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) and Home Run output.

http://webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob/Tobin_AJP_Jan08.pdf

Even typcially rational Sabermetricians are often quick to speculate on whether or not steroids help boost home run totals- often times without scientific evidence to support their claims. Since we're dealing with chemicals that enhance biological processes with the aim of altering physical performance, I thought the views of an actual scientist might be welcome.

Don't Cry, Put Your Head on My Shoulder

Before the verdict was rendered and public, I expected the worst.  I didn’t know what “the worst” was, but it scared me.  It scared me a lot.  Florida State athletics was just emerging out of one of the darkest periods in its history.  The entire athletic department seemed to be on a steep incline, and if it could weather the only foreseeable pitfall, the ascent should have continued.

Well, we can come out of the cellar now.  The storm has passed. 

Of course, talking heads (both local and national) will exaggerate the sentence to all different levels.  Some will claim Bobby knew about it all along, and that he is a notorious cheater.  Others will paint the misdeeds as of the most egregious form in college athletics.  Even others will scoff at the punishment and call for postseason bans and further scholarship reductions.  Gradually, however, the national media will no longer be interested, and they will move on (This may have already happened, but otherwise it won’t be long).   The local media will continue to take shots whenever the topic comes up, but local media outlets in Florida usually have their allegiances to one of the “Big 3.”

Other than the image being tainted, what reason is there to worry?  The punishment has been pushed into the past.  By vacating wins, Florida State has been washed clean.  Let me repeat: WE are clean. Other than some possible difficulty convincing a mother to let her son go to a school with a proven lack of control, the future is still bright.

The scholarship reductions are minimal.  I understand that depth is important, but every year we have a few players on the roster that will never see playing time outside of special teams. Yet, they have a scholarship.  The number isn’t large, but neither is the number of scholarships we are giving up.  Essentially, all this means is we are in more of a “can’t miss” mode in recruiting.  I still don’t think it will make much of a difference, nor do I think most fans are worried on this issue.

Fans are concerned, however, over the dreaded “vacating” of wins.  If Florida State wins its appeal, those wins will have truly gone on a bit of a “vacation,” only to return by the start of the season.  However, I don’t think Florida State will win the appeal, and I don’t think it matters.  Fans, in my observation, fret over two major concerns:  1. We lose one of our track national championships. 2. Bobby will now never catch Joe Paterno.

The former is legitimate.  Championships are so precious and valuable that losing one is probably the worst punishment one can suffer.  After all, programs are built on tradition, and to weaken the tradition is to significantly weaken the program.  The latter, however, could end up being beneficial to the program.

Bobby is great.  He’s one of the greatest of all time.  Whether or not he has more wins than Joe Paterno will not decide that.  JoePa coached longer and will have more wins.  It doesn’t make Bobby anything less.  If they were both going to fulfill their current arrangements, JoePa would have pulled away anyway.  He just signed an extended contract, while Bobby would most likely have retired before the clock struck pay-Jimbo-time. As Whelk pointed out on another occasion, this will actually benefit FSU, because it will give the administration less of a reason to do something silly (keeping Bobby beyond the agreed time, etc.)

As for the probation, I admit I am concerned.  FSU just finds a way to get in trouble for one reason or another.  The punishment for any further infractions would probably be enough to derail the momentum train.  With that said, I don’t think this was.  The entire athletic department can still push onward to new heights.  The football team just had a very good recruiting class, and with success on the field in 2009, no bad rumors from out East will hinder further recruiting accomplishments.  Both men’s and women’s basketball are poised to enter the NCAA Tournaments shortly.  The baseball team hasn’t been stellar, but it is young and very talented, so there’s plenty of reason for optimism.  Soccer, track, swimming, golf, and tennis have all been contenders for either ACC or NCAA titles over the last few years.  Softball has a Hall-of-Fame coach on her last hurrah, and volleyball brought in some new blood with a history of success.

There are plenty of reasons for optimism.

Positioning and Infield Defense

Here's an excerpt from The Fielding Bible posted on The Hardball Times, comparing the excellent defense of Chase Utley to the also excellent defense of Brandon Phillips. The gist of the passage is that Utley positions himself abnormally close to the first base line against left handed hitters, with great results. I have yet to get around to reading the whole book, but I have some thoughts about this excerpt.

First off, Ryan Howard is a real clunker at first base. BP has him as +7 (plays above average) last year, but -6 the two years previous. Joey Votto appears to be a plus fielder at first base, although he's only really played one full year. For the sake of argument, though, assume that Votto has significantly greater range than Howard. Perhaps Utley plays so close to first base to cover for Howard's limited range. Maybe Utley is getting to many grounders that would be gobbled up by the better fielding Joey Votto. In this situation, his ridiculous fielding numbers are partly a product of the poor team defense around him.

I once read a small study (I'll link to it if I can ever find it again) that concluded that rangey third basemen depress the zone rating of the shortstop they're playing next to. The middle infield spots are often thought of as a pairing, but how often have you seen a shortstop field a ball to the right of second base, or a second baseman to the left of the base. It probably makes more sense to consider second and first base as a pair, and shortstop and third base as a pair.

I'm not claiming that Chase Utley isn't an outstanding defender. I do think, however, that defense in baseball is a complex system, and that individual numbers don't necessarily tell the whole story.

Early Impressions

In the past few days, the Noles have lost to Auburn on the road, gotten snowed out, and lost to Jacksonville (away). When compared to past incarnations of team performance, these events may seem like a sure sign of the apocalypse, but I don't ultimately place that much stock in losing the first two road games. The fact that FSU has not lost two consecutive games since 2006 is also a pretty meaningless stat. With that said, I do believe that this team may currently be weaker than the 2007 (and definitely 2008) squad- but it's still a young team with tons of potential. Since one of our chief purposes in writing this blog is to gain greater clarity of impression (a phrase I believe I'm lifting from Whelk's personal version of Luther's 95 Theses), here are some short observations about what I've seen so far...

- Tyler Holt gets on base, is fast, and is a good baserunner. For what it's worth, he also appears to be chock full of "intangibles" (meaning he's feisty and usually pumped up- I can dismiss its overall importance, but I can't not love it).

-Ohmed Danesh is a beast, and is making a serious case for playing every day if he maintains a reasonable portion of his current production. He may have a fair number of strikeouts along the way, but the balls he puts in play have pretty much all been hammered.

-Pitching is a problem. So far Gilmartin has been the only bright spot amongst starters, winning his first two starts and not giving up a lot of runs in doing so. In the bullpen, Brian Busch has absolutely dominated most of his relief appearances and appears to have some of the best stuff on the team (couple this with a quirky delivery and he makes opposing hitters appear foolish more often than not), but he's been used an awful lot. Don't get me wrong, I love seeing him in high leverage situations, but I wonder if the talk of turning him into a starter has become more than talk (hence the gradual increase in innings)? Beyond those two, I'm concerned about depth, especially in the bullpen.

-D'Vo is maybe the best athlete on the team. We knew that right? He's got the speed to leg out infield hits, and although we haven't seen it much yet, I imagine he can steal too. Still, he doesn't seem to be making terrific contact, and I'd imagine that if one were to remove his infield hits, his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) would be relatively low.

-Rafael Lopez has shown flashes of brilliance, but also shows signs of a dude who didn't get to play last year.

-Stuart Tapley seems to have pretty good range when he's charging a ball, but little lateral movement. It's puzzling.

-The offense will probably be just fine. Granted, it's a less powerful team without Posey, Rye, and Guinn, but it's got the potential to bat 9 guys capable of putting together patient, quality, plate appearances. It's also very young, so I imagine we'll see a dip in the freakish numbers currently being put up followed by a gradual climb by some of the 2nd and 3rd year players as the season progresses.

* A few words about all this darn observing: We want stats to be a part of this discussion. As Jon "Boog" Sciambi says, the great thing about Sabermetric thought is that you can enhance your discussions of the game with factual evidence. We're getting there, and as Whelk has said, we hope to have those stats available soon. Then, instead of telling you that I think D'Vo isn't hitting that well or that Ohmed Danesh is awesome, I can point to some (hopefully) meaningful stats to illustrate the point. But we realize there's going to be a serious sample size issue. The numbers we're looking at are probably more of a barometer rather than a predictive tool. We can tell you who's got the best contact % or OPS right now, but that's not as indicative of overall ability as it would be when viewing a major leaguer's career numbers. With that said, I still think the stats we're compiling will allow for much more informed analysis than visual memories of select games. Finally, we love spreadsheets. Doesn't everyone?

Are college baseball statistics useful?

Here's an article by Dave Cameron on Fangraphs about whether or not college statistics are any use when projecting major league potential. He points out similarities in college production between superstars like Chase Utley and peripheral role players like Greg Dobbs. While his point is well taken (scouts rather than college stats are the best way to peg future stars), the achievements of Greg Dobbs should not be discounted. He was signed as an undrafted free agent and after several years in the minors he's found a major league roster spot contributing off the bench for the World Champion Phillies. I take examples like his as evidence that while scouts may have most of the story on college players, exceptional statistical production is not meaningless.

By the way, we should have our own statistics on the Seminoles' season so far available soon.