Positioning and Infield Defense

Here's an excerpt from The Fielding Bible posted on The Hardball Times, comparing the excellent defense of Chase Utley to the also excellent defense of Brandon Phillips. The gist of the passage is that Utley positions himself abnormally close to the first base line against left handed hitters, with great results. I have yet to get around to reading the whole book, but I have some thoughts about this excerpt.

First off, Ryan Howard is a real clunker at first base. BP has him as +7 (plays above average) last year, but -6 the two years previous. Joey Votto appears to be a plus fielder at first base, although he's only really played one full year. For the sake of argument, though, assume that Votto has significantly greater range than Howard. Perhaps Utley plays so close to first base to cover for Howard's limited range. Maybe Utley is getting to many grounders that would be gobbled up by the better fielding Joey Votto. In this situation, his ridiculous fielding numbers are partly a product of the poor team defense around him.

I once read a small study (I'll link to it if I can ever find it again) that concluded that rangey third basemen depress the zone rating of the shortstop they're playing next to. The middle infield spots are often thought of as a pairing, but how often have you seen a shortstop field a ball to the right of second base, or a second baseman to the left of the base. It probably makes more sense to consider second and first base as a pair, and shortstop and third base as a pair.

I'm not claiming that Chase Utley isn't an outstanding defender. I do think, however, that defense in baseball is a complex system, and that individual numbers don't necessarily tell the whole story.

Are college baseball statistics useful?

Here's an article by Dave Cameron on Fangraphs about whether or not college statistics are any use when projecting major league potential. He points out similarities in college production between superstars like Chase Utley and peripheral role players like Greg Dobbs. While his point is well taken (scouts rather than college stats are the best way to peg future stars), the achievements of Greg Dobbs should not be discounted. He was signed as an undrafted free agent and after several years in the minors he's found a major league roster spot contributing off the bench for the World Champion Phillies. I take examples like his as evidence that while scouts may have most of the story on college players, exceptional statistical production is not meaningless.

By the way, we should have our own statistics on the Seminoles' season so far available soon.