Lineups: Part 2

(In Part 1, we talked about the basic theory behind lineup optimization. A lot of what follows comes from the excellent "The Book" by Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin. You can also read more detailed discussions of lineup analysis here and here. Now let's take a closer look and evaluate what FSU did in 2008)

So aside from putting your power hitters in the appropriate places, what are other factors to consider while constructing a batting order? Here's a brief synopsis of each spot in the lineup

1. "OBP machine": He can be a great all around hitter, but OBP is more important than power here. This guy isn't going to see many batters on base in front of him, but he's also going to get more plate appearances than anyone else on the team, so why not make the most of them by getting on base a lot? The 'Noles played Tyler Holt here in 2008, most likely because he seems like a traditional lead0ff hitter. Basically, he's fast without a lot of pop (plus massive levels of the ever tangible qualities of "scrappy-ness" and "get's his uniform dirty"). However, putting our 4th best OBP'er in this spot is probably not ultimately wise. He did, however, walk more than anybody else (albeit with more plate appearance), so he could potentially grow into a better OBP down the road.
2. "Balance": Extra base hits are not valued quite as much here as they would be in the 4 spot, but this player is still a fine batsman. The #2 and #4 hitters should be about the same quality, with the one who walks more getting the nod for the two hole (walks are more valuable toward the top of the order). Jason Stidham played here last year. He's an OK choice- he walks a fair amount, but is balanced over all. However, there are guys who walk about the same amount and are arguably better hitters. We'll get to that in Part 3...
3. "Mr. Not as Good at Hitting a Baseball as the 1,2,4, and 5 hitters": Why? Context. He's going to encounter more situations with no men on and 2 outs than the other batters in the top 5. He's sadly deprived of leverage- even if he does something awesome, chances are it's going to be worth less. Some suggest putting one of your "leftover" players here- Sabermetrician David Pinto says that spreading out your easy outs in this manner is not such a bad idea. However, this spot sees a ton of potential double plays too, so if this guy has a saving grace it should be a relatively low propensity to hit into to DP's. You may recall that FSU played one Buster Posey in this slot. Remember him? I seem to recall him going .463/.566/.879 with 26 HR in 2008. Hmmmm, perhaps this was not the ideal usage of his many talents.
4. "His divine awesomeness knows no bounds": Well, some managers do get this one right. This is where your best hitter goes. This where you ought to put your Barry Bonds, A-Rod, Willie Mays, or in our case- Buster Posey. Coach Martin played Jack Rye here. If not for Buster, I'd say that this was a good choice.
5. "Hey, I'm still pretty darn good": The #5 hitter is going to get some nice opportunities with runners on base, so he should be almost as good as the guys in the 2 and 4 spots. He's here because his slight shortcomings are mitigated some by fewer plate appearances. We played Dennis Guinn here. I'm fine with that. Good power plus so-so OBP compared to his teammates...I'll bite. But that doesn't mean Dennis might not have been able to contribute more in another spot.
6-9. "We're still here. We're actually much better at baseball than the average American." In general, these guys will descend in quality due to the dearth of opportunities to score runs down here. You'll probably want to slot in a powerful player without OBP prowess to bat sixth He can potentially drive in leftover runners from this spot. #7 can be a generally mediocre hitter with a little more emphasis on OBP than SLG. If you've got somebody who can hit singles and not much else, 7th is a fine place in the order. #8 is hanging in there with servicable OBP but no punch. The 9 spot should be your worst batter if you're playing in a league that uses a designated hitter. In the 6, 7, 8, and 9 spots FSU played (respectively) Tony Delmonico, Tommy Oravetz, Mike McGee, and Stuart Tapley. I can't really argue with any of this, except to say that Holt should maybe be down here somewhere. (Feel free to disagree with that if you don't like what I say next, I'm not entirely sure I want to discount Tyler's speed either.)

A note on speedsters: The best way to leverage a good basestealer is to put him in front of somebody who hits consistently but with little power. The fast man will probably end up 5th or 6th in the order. If your speedster steals second in front of a slugger, then he's going to be driven in anyway by a powerful hit without making the most of his speed. You're wasting his talent. The fast runner is leveraged more when he gets to use those wheels to score from second on a lowly single. Tyler Holt was probably our best stealing threat, going 15-24, but in the offensive environment the Seminoles play in, stealing is less valuable than straight up hitting, so I'm going to disregard this aspect of lineup analysis.

In Part 3 we'll see what the 'Noles could have done differently last year and how it might have helped. I'll also throw out some reckless, loosey goosey speculation about what lineup we should employ this season- so there's always that to look forward to as well.